Wednesday, November 17, 2010

BCS Championship Game: TCU vs. Boise State?

AP Photos

The BCS Top 5:

1) Oregon (10-0)
2) Auburn (11-0)
3) TCU (11-0)
4) Boise State (9-0)
5) LSU (9-1)

If the season ended today, the No. 1 Oregon Ducks would play the No. 2 Auburn Tigers in the national title game, BUT-- the season doesn't end today.

There is a pretty decent chance that the No. 3 TCU Horned Frogs and the No. 4 Boise State Broncos may sneak in and play for the big prize. This, of course, much to the CHAGRIN of the BCS hierarchy. In sure they are keeping their fingers crossed and hoping Oregon and Auburn run the table so no mid-major plays in the big game. That would be blasphemy.

Oregon's road is definitely doable. Their last two games are against No. 22 Arizona and at Oregon State (the annual Civil War game). Both games are very winnable for the Ducks and if they win out, they'll play in the national title game, no questions asked.

But what if Oregon loses one or both games?

Auburn, on the other hand, has a much tougher road. They have to go to Tuscaloosa and play the No. 11 Alabama Crimson Tide (8-2) and then they finish the season with a home game against the pesky No. 17 South Carolina Gamecocks (7-3). They need to win both those games in order to eliminate the No. 4 LSU Tigers who are breathing down their necks.

If Auburn can somehow win those two games then they'll face South Carolina (again) in the SEC Championship Game. Again, they would have to win that game also or they'll fall in the rankings. If they do win out, then their is no debating their trip to the national title game.

Getty Images

But that is a LONG road for Auburn. What if they stumble along the way?

As for TCU, they have a very winnable game left at New Mexico. It is almost certain TCU will end up 12-0.

Boise State has a little bumpier road to finish unbeaten. They still have games against Fresno State, at No. 18 Nevada and Utah State. The Nevada game is by far their toughest. The Wolf Pack (9-1) are having probably the best season in school history and they may just ruin Boise State's championship hopes.

But if the Broncos manage to run the table and finish 12-0 and TCU finishes 12-0 (which they most likely will) AND Oregon and Auburn stumble-- I wonder what the BCS is going to do?

Will they bum rush a potential one-loss SEC champion (Auburn or LSU) OR a potential one-loss Big 12 champion (Nebraska or Oklahoma State) OR a potential one-loss Big 10 champion (Ohio State or Wisconsin) into the title game?

It wouldn't surprise me if they do.

But this is the one year where the road is crystal clear. If Oregon and Auburn stumble, then (clearly) it should be TCU vs. Boise State (if both end up unbeaten) in the national title game. No question about it.

I just wonder if the BCS knows that?

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