Wednesday, July 21, 2010

The Usual Suspects


As we all know, this upcoming weekend is Hall of Fame induction weekend and right of the bat, let me say, congratulations to Andre Dawson, manager Whitey Herzog and umpire Doug Harvey on their inductions into the Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum.

But what about the above characters? Are they ever going to get in? The next 4 years are going to be interesting because the BBWAA voters have a curious dilemma in their hands. By 2013 all five of the above will officially be Hall of Fame eligible and all 5, MOST DEFINITELY, have the numbers to get in.

And of course, all five are synonymous with the steroids scandal, BUT none of them have ever been found guilty of any wrong doing.

Hmmm?

But the shunning has already begun with Suspect #1. No, not Keyser Soze, but--

Mark McGwire


McGwire has been Hall of Fame eligible since 2007 and only a handful of voters have voted for him. As we all know the magic number for enshrinement is 75% of the vote and McGwire has only received the following--

2007 - 23.5%
2008 - 23.6%
2009 - 21.9%
2010 - 23.7%

Obviously the voters are sending a tough message with "Big Mac". McGwire, who ended his career with 583 home runs, should have been a first-ballot HOFer, easily, had the dark cloud of his now-admitted steroid use not hovered over him like a bad hangover. Next up--

Rafael Palmeiro


Palmeiro is officially eligible on the upcoming 2011 ballot. Is he getting in? I don't think so. If Big Mac ain't gettin' in, then neither is Palmeiro.

My prediction for the 2011 Hall of Fame class:
  • Bert Blyleven (74.2% in 2010 makes Blyleven a shoo-in in 2011.)
  • Roberto Alomar (73.75% in 2010 also makes Alomar a shoo-in. )

My 2012 Hall of Fame class:

  • Barry Larkin (This will be Larkin's 3rd year on the ballot, he's a shortstop, 2012 will be an off year-- so why not?)
And then in 2013-- Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Sammy Sosa become eligible. Are they getting in? All 3 definitely have first-ballot statistics, BUT--

Barry Bonds
Sorry Barry-- unless there's a culture shift, you ain't gettin' in, especially if McGwire and Palmeiro are still getting shunned.



Did someone say "asterisk"?

And then there's--

Roger Clemens

Clemens was one of the most dominant pitchers of his generation, a sure-fire HOFer, and sadly, he's now remembered as a "liar, liar".




Oh and can someone explain to me why Clemens, VOLUNTARILY, went in front of Congress and pretty much destroyed his legacy? Sorry Roger, no HOF for you, just for that dumb move!

And speaking of Congress, there's--

Sammy Sosa
Sammy has become the butt of jokes even back home in the Dominican Republic where he bleached his skin, ala Michael Jackson. Say it isn't so, Sammy?



Sorry Sammy, you ain't gettin' in either.

My prediction for the Class of 2013:

  • Craig Biggio (first ballot)
  • Mike Piazza (first ballot)

I might as well keep it going--

Class of 2014:
  • Greg Maddux (first ballot)
  • Jeff Kent (first ballot)
  • Jack Morris (2014 will be Morris' last year of eligibility and the voters will vote him in by a whisker.)

Class of 2015:

  • Randy Johnson (first ballot)

Class of 2016:
  • Ken Griffey Jr (first ballot)
  • Chipper Jones (first ballot - if he decides to retire after this season)
  • Lee Smith (his final year of eligibility, a once-all time saves leader, Smith gets in)
  • Edgar Martinez (in his 7th try-- the first pure DH gets in)

And that leaves us with Charlie Brown--

When is Charlie going to finally get an honorary membership?

Oh no! Say it ain't so, Charlie?! Don't ruin your chances by jumping the bandwagon.

Anyway--

In the next coming years it'll be interesting to see what the voters do with the above players-- except, of course, Charlie Brown. I guess we can say, all five of them have first-ballot numbers and no-ballot reputations.

And one thing is certain-- if one of them does get in-- then they all should get in.

To be continued....

Cartoon images courtesy of Cagle.com

2 comments:

  1. Great post Jose! Love the comics. I agree with most of your predictions, but Jeff Kent on his first try. He'll get in, but it will take a couple of ballots. True his numbers are better than Sandberg, but not nearly as personable or respected, and Sandberg had to wait a couple of ballots. I'm still hoping to see Tim Raines get in.

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  2. Thanks Charley. I agree Kent probably shouldn't be a first-ballot HOF, but I figured he'll get in by default (if that's the right word) on his first try. Maybe he'll get a bounce from the steroids anger the voters have. I also agree about Raines, but it looks like the voters are saving him for his last 2-3 years of eligibility. Enjoy the Dawson induction today.

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